The Italian Banking Association promoted the creation of the ABI Country Risk Forum to monitor the evolution of emerging markets. The Forum is aimed at banks, enterprises, institutions and representatives of business world and academia, who are interested in country risk.
The objective of the Forum is to pool together experiences and background information of the different players on the foreign markets so to be able to foresee possible crisis in the emerging countries.
In support of the Forum’s activities, ABI, in cooperation with the University of Bologna and an interbank group of experts, finalised an innovative early warning model - ABI Country Risk Compass – on the vulnerabilities of emerging countries. This model allows ABI to assess the likelihood of banking and liquidity crisis in a sample of fifty emerging countries, by analysing approximately a hundred variables dealing with the macroeconomic situation, performance of the banking system, political and institutional stability. The methodology in use (Classification and Regression Trees) allows the identification of variables with consequent better forecasting.
The Forum will meet twice a year to analyse prospects made by the ABI Country Risk Compass and to discuss with Italian and international experts key issues concerning global growth and economy. The activity of the Forum will be complemented by regular workshops in order to analyse in more detail the evolution of the situation in geographic areas that are of priority interest for those participating in the Forum.
Moreover, a dedicated website will be created, which will enable users to: i) consult the database regarding ratings assigned to emerging countries on a six-month basis; ii) create tailor-made scenarios; iii) consult the documents regarding Forum activities (surveys, reports, communications, records).
Following the kick-off meeting, held in Rome in June 2008, the ABI Country Risk Forum was set up and 32 members joined: 16 banking groups, 6 non-banking institutions operating in the internationalization and risk analysis field and 10 Institutions and University representatives.
The first meeting of the ABI Country Risk Forum will be held in Rome on December 10.
Information on conditions for membership is available at ABI offices - Corporate Credit Department, Phone: + 39 06 6767 256/360/436, Fax: + 39 06 67678015, E-mail:
co@abi.it